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In the United States (US), major stock indices have reached new highs following a rapid recovery. Last week, the S&P 500 surpassed 7 100 points, the Nasdaq Composite climbed above 24 400, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average approached 50 000. Markets recovered from a near 10% decline in just eleven trading sessions, marking one of the fastest rebounds on record.

Market performance has been supported by easing concerns around geopolitical escalation, stabilising oil prices, and strong earnings expectations. Oil prices briefly broke below US$90 per barrel last week, which is more than 10% below their inflation-adjusted moving averages of the past decade-plus.

Markets were further supported by US corporate earnings for the first quarter, which are projected to rise by 14%, led by gains in technology and artificial intelligence sectors.

South Africa’s All Share Index is also trading near its all-time record high, having returned over 30% in rand terms to investors over the past 12 months.

At the global level, economic growth forecasts remain broadly stable. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global growth at 3.1% for 2026, slightly down from 3.3% in January. Growth in advanced economies remains unchanged at 1.8%. The US is forecast at 2.3%, down from 2.4%, while the euro area is revised to 1.1% from 1.3%. The United Kingdom is forecast to grow at 0.8%, down from 1.3%, chiefly as a consequence of its wholly counter-productive energy policies of the past two decades.

Emerging markets are projected to grow at 3.9%, down from 4.2%. Emerging Asia is expected to expand by 4.9%, slightly below the previous 5.0% estimate. India is forecast to grow at 6.5%, up from 6.4%, while China is projected at 4.4%, down from 4.5%.

Beyond Starmer’s broadly beleaguered UK, the only serious downward revisions are concentrated in energy-exposed regions. Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia is projected at 1.9%, down from 3.9%. Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast at 4.3%, down from 4.6%, with South Africa at 1.0% from 1.4% and Nigeria at 4.1% from 4.4%.